This afternoon, May 7, 133 cardinals from 70 countries entered the largest conclave in history to elect the 266th successor of St. Peter as leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
Across the world, Catholics are praying for the cardinals in hopes that they will choose a pope who can reach the hearts of people, as Francis, the first Latin American and first Jesuit pope, did during his leadership of the church for over 12 years.
At 10 a.m. Rome time, the cardinals—the 133 electors and some 100 more over the age of 80 who cannot vote—processed into St. Peter’s Basilica to concelebrate the Mass for the election of the pope. Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, the dean of the College of Cardinals, was the main celebrant.
“We feel united with the entire People of God in their sense of faith, love for the pope and confident expectation,” he told the cardinals in a homily that sought to set the tone for the conclave.
“We are here to invoke the help of the Holy Spirit, to implore his light and strength so that the pope elected may be he whom the church and humanity need at this difficult, complex and tormented turning point in history.”
He told the electors the world “expects much from the church regarding the safeguarding of those fundamental human and spiritual values without which human coexistence will not be better nor bring good to future generations.”
It was surprising, however, that Cardinal Re, who entered the Holy See’s diplomatic service in 1963 under Pope Paul VI and was very close to St. John Paul II, recalled both Paul VI and John Paul II in his homily but made no mention of Pope Francis. It was notable, moreover, how warmly Cardinal Re exchanged the kiss of peace with Cardinal Pietro Parolin, and said, “Auguri doppi, Pietro” (“Double good wishes, Pietro,’’ meaning in the conclave and for managing it, since he will preside over it); it is no secret that he favors Cardinal Parolin’s election as pope.
According to the information given by the director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, to the 4,000 journalists from all over the world covering this conclave, the cardinals (both electors and non-electors) held 12 plenary assemblies (called general congregations) between Pope Francis’ death and the eve of the conclave. During these meetings, Mr. Bruni said, they developed a profile of the next pope.
They called for a pope “who must be present, close, capable of being a bridge and a guide,” one who favors “access to communion for a disoriented humanity marked by the crisis of the world order” and who must be “a shepherd close to the real life of people.” The cardinals, Mr. Bruni said, noted that the next pope must be “a true pastor, a guide who knows how to go beyond the confines of the Catholic church,” capable of “promoting dialogue and building relations with other religious and cultural worlds.”
They called for the next pope “to have a prophetic spirit, capable of leading a church that does not close in on herself, but is able to go out and bring light to a world marked by despair.”
Many speakers spoke of the need to continue the process started by Pope Francis of building a synodal church, an issue that may become the litmus test for the election of the next pope.
The cardinals
Cardinal Parolin, an accomplished diplomat but without the pastoral experience of running a diocese, is considered the lead contender to succeed Francis as pope, and has been promoted strongly in the Italian media as the one who has the strongest chance to bring the papacy back to Italy after 47 years.
Many cardinals, however, are not convinced about the need to return the papacy to Italy. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, S.J., said, “We must not put geographical limits on the Holy Spirit”; Cardinal Ludwig Müller told me “this talk of nationalism—national egotism—is misplaced.”
Several cardinals, including a German cardinal, have told me that there is no cardinal or “papabile” that stands head and shoulders above the others in this conclave. Two cardinals, however, are known across the world as well as by the electors. The first is Cardinal Parolin, 70, because as secretary of state from 2013 to 2025 he has traveled to many countries on five continents and received cardinals when they came to Rome. I have learned that many electors will not vote for him for various reasons, however, so it is far from clear that he can get the 89 votes needed to be elected. Much will depend on how many votes he gets in the first two ballots, which could provide the momentum he would need.
The second is the Filipino cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, former archbishop of Manila, the largest diocese in Asia. Since 2019, he was first prefect and is now pro-prefect of the Dicastery for the Evangelization of Peoples, which oversees the churches in mission lands. He was also president of Caritas Internationalis for several years and traveled widely in that role. He would surely have strong support from Asia, which has 23 electors, and from other parts of the Global South; but again, like Cardinal Parolin, it will not be easy for him to obtain the votes required for election.
Apart from the the top contenders, there are other papabili who could gain some solid support: Cardinal Robert Prevost, O.S.A., 69, who was born in Chicago but spent many years of his life as a missionary and bishop in Peru, was former head of the Augustinian order and is currently prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops; and Cardinal Jean Marc Aveline, 66, the archbishop of Marseilles and a leader in the Mediterranean area in interreligious dialogue and work for migrants, who was recently elected president of the French bishops conference.
A third cardinal that could gain support is the Italian cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference and sent by Pope Francis as his envoy to Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, D.C., and Beijing to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine. A fourth cardinal often mentioned as papabile is the Maltese-born Mario Grech, 68, the former bishop of Gozo, whom Pope Francis appointed as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops in 2020; in this role he has become well known internationally for his promotion of synodality and his role in the synods.
Another cardinal who could gain votes is Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, the archbishop of Budapest, Hungary, and former president of the bishops’ conference of the European Union, who is seen to be less enthusiastic than other papabili about synodality. A sixth possibility, pushed strongly in the Italian press, is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, O.F.M., the Italian-born Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who is in the eye of the storm due to ongoing war in Gaza, but for many, at 60, is too young to be pope. Moreover, he is known to not favor a synodal church.
The first four cardinals, as well as Cardinal Tagle, are all committed to the main lines of the Francis papacy and a synodal church, but informed sources tell me there is no early evidence (perhaps not surprisingly) that any of them could gain the 89 votes needed for election.
If none of the above can reach the quorum for election, then we could see other candidates emerge such as cardinals Jean Claude Hollerich, S.J., 66, the archbishop of Luxembourg who spent more than 20 years in Japan and played a central role in the Synod on Synodality as relator general; and Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David, 66, the president of the Philippine bishops’ conference and vice president of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, who has shown extraordinary leadership and courage in his homeland during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte and his war on drugs, when he was threatened several times for assisting the victims and their families. Cardinal David reportedly made a big impact with his intervention in the pre-conclave general congregations, which one cardinal called “a bombshell.” Both Cardinals Hollerich and David are fluent in multiple languages.
This uncertainty regarding the election of any of the six papabili that have gained the most visibility in the media has raised the question of how long it could take to elect the new pope. Since 1939, only two conclaves have lasted three days—that of 1958 for the election of Pope John XXIII and of 1978 for the election of Pope John Paul II. All the rest have elected a pope in two days. I was surprised, therefore, when, on the eve of the conclave, two cardinals told me that they think it could take at least three days, and perhaps more, to elect the successor to Francis.
That said, very many things can change once the cardinals start voting. If this evening’s first vote reveals three or four well-supported front contenders, then the eyes of the electors will turn to the second and third ballots on Thursday morning (May 8) to see if anyone gains enough momentum to put him on the road to the papacy. If we do not have a pope by the fifth ballot on Thursday evening, this could suggest that contenders other than the top two have come to the fore. If there is no election on the third day, then stand by for a real surprise.
