Predicting when the smoke will rise from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel is not an exact science.

Cardinal Becciu issued a statement the morning of April 29 saying, “I have decided to obey—as I have always done—the will of Pope Francis not to enter the conclave, while remaining convinced of my innocence.”

A conclave to elect a successor to Pope Francis will begin on Wednesday, May 7, the Vatican announced Monday.