Roll Call and the Rothenberg Political Report have posted their first predictions for congressional and gubernatorial races in 2014—and it’s not too early, given how far in advance candidate recruitment and fundraising begin.

 

As of now, the Democrats need to pick up 17 seats to retake the House, and the striking thing about the Roll Call map is how little chance the party is given to make gains in the “red states” from the last presidential election. Only three Republican seats in Romney states (one each in Indiana, Nebraska, and West Virginia) are considered even remotely competitive, and the South is entirely off-limits.

 

Instead, the most promising spots for Democratic pick-ups seem to be in Northeastern and Midwestern states that Obama carried, with New York and Ohio contributing three possibilities each to the Roll Call list. Unless things change dramatically over the next year, the Roll Call map suggests that few of the most conservative Republicans in the House have anything to fear in 2014. The map is not good news for anyone hoping for a more conciliatory relationship between the GOP House and the Obama White House.