When Pope Leo XIV lands in Paris on Friday, Sept. 25, welcomed by French President Emmanuel Macron and given military honors (albeit scaled back at the pope’s request), the atmosphere will likely be jubilant. This should be particularly true for Mr. Macron, who has finally been granted his longstanding wish of a papal visit before the end of his term.

The pope will arrive for a four-day trip through Paris, Lourdes and Metz studded with high-profile political speeches and massive outdoor liturgies, all set against the backdrop of a Catholic Church that has seen an unprecedented increase in conversions since the Covid-19 pandemic.

It would be easy for the pope to treat this visit as a victory lap for the French church, yet it appears from his agenda for the visit that Leo will not take that approach. Instead, the pope’s itinerary is filled with events aimed at welcoming newcomers both to the church and to France; meetings with abuse survivors, the sick and migrants that emphasize the church’s responsibility to the most vulnerable in society; and gatherings focused on prayer and synodal discernment.

Can a wave of conversions turn the tide?

The Catholic Church in France has seen a surprising jump in adult baptisms since 2022, rising from its usual figure of around 4,000 converts joining the church per year to almost 5,500 in 2023. The figure crossed 7,000 in 2024, 10,000 in 2025 and was above 20,000 this past Easter, with the largest segment being under age 25 and the majority being under 40, according to data from the French bishops.

The boom has sent French dioceses scrambling to respond, organizing conferences on the catechumenate, publishing pastoral guidelines and creating new services to keep the newly baptized engaged in church life. The Archdiocese of Paris and eight surrounding dioceses have formed a regional council to address the baptism boom, and since 2023 more than 30 French dioceses have added a specific catechumenate path just for teenagers.

As for what is drawing so many new converts to the church, data gathered by the French bishops point to catechumens seeking baptism after personal life crises, deep questioning or profound spiritual encounters; they are mostly working-class and the majority are women. A 2025 survey by French Catholic publications of 900 catechumens found that many had gone to Mass regularly and read the Bible before seeking baptism, and 95 percent reported that they intended to “practice with engagement” after baptism. 

French media have speculated, and some catechumens have shared anecdotally, that their desire for a more intentional religious practice was inspired by their Muslim peers, who make up an increasing share of the French population. Le Monde described the new converts as “in search of radicalism” in a nation in which public laïcité, or secularism, is the law of the land. A sociological study of French youth found that many were not “shocked” by religious symbols in public compared to older generations.

Still, while the number and fervor of new converts has required adjustment on the part of parishes and dioceses, it is not enough to reverse the decades-long decline in French Catholicism. In the 1960s, 85 percent of French people identified as Catholic; that number is now well below 50 percent, though it varies depending on how belonging is measured. Meanwhile, a full 50 percent of French people identify as atheist or having no religion.

Pope Leo’s address to the French bishops on Sunday morning in Lourdes will likely deal with how to navigate this dual pastoral challenge and opportunity. Leo will also address catechumens and new Catholics directly on Saturday, at a meeting that will also include representatives of the Provincial Synodal Assembly of the Ecclesiastical Province of Paris, a synod-style group of Catholics from the dioceses in and near Paris aimed at discerning how best to accompany new Catholics. The group will present its working document to the pope; because of this, it seems likely that the pope’s message to the new, highly-engaged French Catholics will stress the importance of synodality and mutual listening among Catholics new and old.

Touching the wounds of humanity

The church that French catechumens are joining is also one deeply wounded by the clerical sexual abuse crisis, a wound visually symbolized by the coverings now hanging over the mosaics on the front of the Lourdes basilica. Those mosaics were created by Father Marko Ivan Rupnik, the Slovenian priest and former Jesuit who is currently on trial in the Vatican and has been accused by more than 20 women of spiritual and sexual abuse; they were covered on the orders of the local bishop, Jean-Marc Micas, ahead of the pope’s visit. The bishop said that Pope Leo had backed the decision.

On the eve of the visit, five of the women who had accused Father Rupnik of abuse published an open letter to Pope Leo expressing appreciation that the mosaics had been covered, but also expressing concern that they had not received any updates on the progress of Father Rupnik’s trial. The women wrote that they had only learned through media reports this summer that the trial had begun.

The pope will meet in Lourdes at an undisclosed location with seven survivors of sexual abuse by Catholic leaders, including but not limited to clergy. The survivors were chosen by the local church rather than by victims advocacy organizations, drawing criticism from some of those organizations. 

While visits with clerical sexual abuse survivors have become commonplace on papal trips, Leo’s decision to meet with victims in Lourdes as well as his apparent involvement in the covering of the Rupnik mosaics hint that one of his messages to the French church may be that those wounded by the church deserve just as much welcome and attention as enthusiastic new converts.

Another clear message the pope is sending with this visit is the importance of the church’s role in reaching out to those on the margins of society. The pope will visit Maison Bakhita in Paris, a center run by the Archdiocese of Paris to welcome migrants, as well as the Accueil Notre-Dame, which cares for pilgrims to Lourdes who need extra medical assistance. The latter visit will take on particular significance in light of the French National Assembly’s decision last month to give final approval to a bill allowing adults with incurable illnesses to receive lethal medications.

Appeals to French and European identity

It remains to be seen whether Leo will address the recent “right to die” law in any way in his addresses to secular authorities, but it is almost certain that he will advocate unity and peace in those addresses, as he often does.

The theme of unity will be particularly pressing for the pope given that the French polity is particularly polarized ahead of next year’s presidential elections. Likewise, in his address to European leaders in the northeastern French city of Metz on the last day of his trip, Leo will almost certainly address the need for European collaboration, particularly in the face of the threat of expanded war in Europe.

The question facing the pope is this: On what are French and European unity based? In the nation once known as the “eldest daughter of the Church,” now largely secular but with an increasing openness to religion among its youth, to what extent will the pope choose to identify Catholicism as important to French identity? Any invocation of a Christian national identity would be cheered by far-right political groups, whose presidential candidate Marine Le Pen currently holds a lead in national election polls, and condemned by the left, potentially furthering polarization. At the same time, it would be shocking if the pope were not to invoke the nation’s rich Catholic history, including its many saints.

As regards Europe, what will Leo point to as a unifying force for Europe in a time when European identity is increasingly shaped by immigrants from outside Europe?

The answer to the latter may already be determined by the choice of venue for the pope’s Metz address: the Robert Schuman Conference Center, named for the Catholic co-founder of the European Union. In the wake of the Second World War, Schuman advocated for the building of political and economic interdependence among European nations and overcoming the historical rivalry between France and Germany. His example will almost certainly be invoked by Leo—and could have ripple effects beyond Europe, as Schuman was also a strong supporter of NATO, which is currently under threat by the Trump administration.

Colleen Dulle is the Vatican Correspondent at America and co-hosts the "Inside the Vatican" podcast. She is the author of Struck Down, Not Destroyed: Keeping the Faith as a Vatican Reporter (Image, 2025).