Will Arab communities, representing more than 20 percent of the population in the State of Israel and perhaps 18 percent of its voters, play a kingmaking role in upcoming elections?
Israel’s Stat-Net Research Institute projects a voter turnout of 63 percent among Arab citizens of Israel on Oct. 27. That would represent a notable improvement over the 53 percent turnout among Arab Israelis during the 2022 elections. In Israel’s parliamentary system, that could give the Arab vote a significant role in forming the next government. Within that Israeli-Arab voting bloc are Arab Christians, who represent 7.5 percent of Israel’s Arab community and about 1.5 percent of the total vote.
Israel’s Arab parties could join a center-right coalition government led by the Yashar Party leader Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff for the Israel Defense Force. That would mean the ouster of the current far right-wing government led by Likud Party leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including its extremist partners Jewish Power and the Religious Zionist Party.
The political, economic and social challenges facing Israel cut across all sectors and communities, but as a tiny minority of the population, Christians feel increasingly vulnerable, said Wadie Abunassar, coordinator for the Forum of Holy Land Christians.
A fragmented Israel
Growing Jewish and Muslim extremism and a lack of political representation of the Christian community within Israel’s mainstream political parties increasingly create a feeling of isolation and lack of political protection for the Christian community, he said.
Two Christian candidates are running with the Joint List, which combines the candidates from three Arab parties, and one Christian candidate is running in the right-wing Amcha Yisrael Party. But none of the candidates are running on platforms that explicitly represent concerns specific to Israel’s Christians, Mr. Abunassar said.
“There is a big, big challenge from all directions—economically, socially,” he said. “The country is fragmented. This government planted hatred within the Jewish community, not only [between] Jews and Arabs. So, yes, many people are frustrated. I know many friends who…left or are planning to leave. It’s not only Christians who are leaving. I know many Muslims who left.”
The growing division and animosity within Israel, driven in part by a growing Jewish messianic population that believes the land was divinely bestowed on them, are a “very sad reality,” he said. Mr. Abunassar suggested that they are indeed an even worse danger than Iranian missiles or the other confrontations continuing in the region.
“Of course, these are [external] dangers and risks, but when you and your family start hating or mistrusting each other, this is…the beginning of the collapse [that] could happen at any given time,” he said, citing fear of possible political assassination or rioting depending on the outcome of the election.
“I’m worried for Israel…I believe the main challenge now is the collapse from [a] nation to ‘tribes.’” Mr. Abunassar perceived a similar phenomenon at work within the Palestinian Authority.
“Of course, the Israeli occupation, settlers, violence—all these issues are important,” he said. “But I’m worried that the sense of [national] belonging is fading away.”
When long-time Christian Arab-Israeli friends Brouk Totari, Khalil Jiryis and Mikhael Jacob organized a conference call to catch up after work last week, their conversation inevitably turned to the elections.
Four turbulent years have passed since the last national elections that created the 25th Knesset. They included the Hamas attack on southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023, and the ensuing war in Gaza, clashes over judicial reform legislation, escalating settler violence in the West Bank, war with Iran and corruption charges and a court pursuit of Mr. Netanyahu.
All three young people are single and successful professionals, Israeli citizens and active in their Christian communities. Ms. Totari, 28, advises local authorities on public policy. She is from the central city of Ramleh. Mr. Jiryis, 30, is a lawyer from the northern town of Kafr Yasif; and Mr. Jacob, 25, an accountant, is from the northern city of Haifa.
“I still don’t know who to vote for, but I know that it is very important to vote and I’m going to vote,” Ms. Totari told America this week, reflecting on the conversation she had with her friends.
While the ongoing wars in the region are a part of their daily consciousness, and they earnestly pray for peace, all three agreed that the more immediate concern of young people in Israel’s Christian community right now are the challenges of finding a job with a salary high enough to cover housing, preferably near family. Affordability, as in the United States, will play a significant role in the upcoming election.
“There is no doubt that there are wars all around,” Ms. Totari said. “But we need someone to think about our everyday life here.”
Crime and affordability on the ballot
Another major concern of Christian and other Israeli voters on Oct. 27 will be violent crime in Arab communities, a problem that has gone unchecked under Mr. Netanyahu’s government. Last December the Knesset voted to slash the budget of a multifaceted anti-crime plan enacted by the previous government in 2021, diverting money intended for economic development and social welfare to more police enforcement.
The Christian community often feels helpless in face of the increasing criminality, Mr. Abunassar explained. Perceived as a weak community because of their small numbers compared to large Muslim and Druze clans, Christian business people are frequently targeted by crime gangs within the Arab community, he said.
Young Christian Israelis do not want just to be able to “survive,” Ms. Totari said; they want to thrive. As she and Mr. Jiryis and Mr. Jacob discussed their futures, the friends wondered if the time had come to take the step of moving abroad while they were still single and without children.
“We started thinking about…how difficult it is for us to take such a step because we really want our community here to grow stronger, and those who will really strengthen the community are professionals of the new generation who will stay here and remain part of the ecosystem,” she said.
“Then we find that even politically we don’t understand what’s going on here. We don’t know what will happen to the future of our children and what will happen to us. If [the Arab Christian community and its needs] will really be taken into account.”
But despite their shared challenges, Christians in Israel should not be seen as one voting block, Mr. Jacob pointed out. The community consists of different denominations and people who experience different daily realities depending on where they live and their socio-economic situation, he said.
“We wish for better days and for people to have more opportunity for jobs,” Mr. Jacob said. “When people are working and they have money and they are stable in their lives, they choose to be more peaceful because they are living more comfortably. So we wish for more opportunity for everyone, for every Israeli citizen to have more opportunity for work.”
He added: “I hope whoever wins the elections finds the best solutions.”
While in recent polls Mr. Eisenkot has consistently come out ahead of Mr. Netanyahu, neither of the parties they lead are expected to be able to claim the 61 Knesset seats that would guarantee their leadership in the next government. Both men will likely need to cobble together a coalition with other parties.
A coalition led by Mr. Eisenkot’s party, Yashar, may include one or both of the two Arab parties—the Joint List and the United Arab List. Mansour Abbas of the United Arab List was the first Arab politician to join an Israeli governing coalition in 2021.
In a meditation published on Oct. 13, the former Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Michel Sabah urged Christians to vote in the elections, emphasizing their duty as citizens to make their voices heard.
“We are living through difficult days,” he wrote. “There are many people suffering in our land, much bloodshed and much injustice. We are all responsible, whatever our circumstances. The elections are an opportunity for change and reform, to alleviate human suffering in this country, for both Palestinians and Israelis,” the former patriarch said. “They offer an opportunity to stop the bloodshed, end injustice and alleviate the suffering of all those who are afflicted, and to begin building a stable life based on peace, justice and equality.”
“Your vote has value and impact. It can make a difference,” he added.
All three friends said they intend to vote, as do most of their friends. Mr. Jiryis noted that though there are no candidates that he feels will particularly represent Christian interests like protecting churches and holy sites and supporting Christian schools, there are parliament members who have assisted the Christian community.
“We have a lot of issues that are important to us, such as our existence in the Holy Land, that we also believe that Jesus was here, and we believe that the Holy Land is ours as well. It is important for us to preserve our churches and our existence as Christians, as citizens of the country, and that we live in peace,” he said.
“We are of course a Christian minority; we always think only of living in peace with the people, with the environment and with the community, and there is no such party that represents all Christians that is vital, that is in the middle, that is at peace with all sides,” Mr. Jiryis said. “That did not happen and never happened. There have been and are Knesset members who are Christians, but they don’t speak for all Christians.”
Overall, what is important is there be an end to wars, a stable economy and peace, he said. His main concern is the growing crime rate in Arab communities because of powerful crime syndicates, loan sharking and a widespread illegal firearms market.
According to the civil society group, The Abraham Initiatives, there has been a 15 percent increase in the number of homicides in Israel’s Arab community in the first half of 2026, with 147 Arab citizens murdered. That pace would exceed the record 256 homicides recorded in the Arab community in 2025.
Mr. Jiryis said that rising crime has hindered his career as an attorney. Professional success in Israel’s Arab communities too often means attracting threats of blackmail and extortion from crime figures, he explained.
“In my decision to vote for the elections, I’m raising this issue of violence and housing,” he told America. “As a young person right now, when I want to move forward in my life, I’m also one of the people who have difficulties finding housing.”
According to Mr. Abunassar, 730 Christians, representing 1 percent of the Arab Christian population, left Israel in 2025, a significantly higher rate than among other communities. Many more are seriously considering leaving because of insecurity, lack of economic opportunities and a desire for a life free from constant conflict and incessant demands on Arab Christians to demonstrate loyalty to the state, he said.
Young families are the primary demographic leaving, either for better job prospects abroad or for a more peaceful existence in Europe. Even his own wife and four young adult daughters are increasingly pressing him to move abroad, he said, and he is losing the ability to argue against his family’s wishes in the face of Israel’s current difficulties.
“I’m now touring the different parishes almost every Sunday and I get the same message from many people,” he said: “If the same government will remain in place or a similar government will be [elected]…many people are considering seriously to leave.”
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