For almost half a century, the Catholic Church in Ireland has been dealing with narratives of decline. But as St. Patrick’s Day approaches this year, there are signs that the missionary impulse may be returning.
That rebound would represent a significant course correction for the Irish church. Few countries have experienced such a dramatic drop-off in faith adherence. As recently as the 1970s, around 90 percent of the population were regular Massgoers. Today, that figure is closer to 30 percent.
There are many factors at play, not least the impact of the horrendous abuse that took place within the church’s institutions. Many feared the decline provoked by the church’s handling of abuse of all kinds had reached a kind of ecclesial terminal velocity. But one is reminded of the line from C. S. Lewis’s Mere Christianity: “[J]ust as [critics of the church] are patting down the earth on its grave, they suddenly hear that it is still alive and has even broken out in some new place.”
A new report suggests that a church postmortem will not be imminently required. “The Turning Tide?” was commissioned by the Irish Catholic Bishops’ Conference and engages with the respected and robust European Social Survey data on religion. Its findings suggest that even after the collapse in adherence, Ireland remains among the most religious societies in Europe and, according to the report, there are new indications that young people are being particularly drawn to the faith.
The social science data reports that Ireland’s weekly Mass attendance figure of 31 percent is the fourth highest in Europe. And while the “Tide” study confirms a general trend toward disaffiliation from organized religion, the authors note that “something very notable happens in the most recent (i.e., 2023/24) data: a 7 percentage point ‘swing’ to Catholic and away from ‘no religion.’”
This is just one data point, but the researchers suspect that it is significant. If nothing else, it demonstrates that the graphs tracking Catholic adherence are not inevitably destined to run downward.
The report highlights a surprising trend among young people. In the cohort aged 16 to 29, the most recent data shows a 10 percent drop in those who declare themselves as having “no religion” and a 5 percent increase in young adults identifying as Catholic. The authors propose several theories as to why this might be but conclude that further research is required to really understand the dynamics at play.
A warm but critically cautious response may be the best approach to such research, and it is the one advocated by the Rev. Dr. Michael Shortall, the president of St. Patrick’s College in Maynooth, Ireland’s national seminary and the largest English-speaking theological faculty in Europe. (The author is a graduate of Maynooth and serves on its panel of adjunct instructors.)
Speaking about the report and others like it, Father Shortall says that “some people are very excited. And I’m noting it with attention, though remembering that a 100 percent increase can mean you have moved from two people to four people. When the numbers are small, talk of ‘record growth’ needs to be received wisely.”
He willingly admits that there is “some specific evidence, primarily anecdotal,” that the context for evangelization in Ireland is changing. “In just the last two years,” he says, “there has been a tangible increase in young men interested in Catholicism.”
This new interest has been noticeable, he says, in Maynooth classrooms where “we see more men in class who are more engaged and more challenged,” and he can even see it across the wider campus (St. Patrick’s shares its campus with its much larger, secular offshoot, Maynooth University). He explains that at lunchtime Mass “prior to Covid, up to a few years ago, if young people were interested in faith, they would tend to be women. But that has flipped. There are more young men there now than women.”
Some attribute the resurgent interest in faith among men to the influence of a certain kind of evangelization, one that emphasizes so-called traditional masculinity. But this does not track with Father Shortall’s pastoral experience.
“There are podcasts and priest-influencers who model that particular kind of conviction,” he says, “but the young men that I meet are a little lost, a little fragile and vulnerable maybe. And at church, they are hearing what they don’t hear elsewhere—that they matter, that someone cares for them. This is very far from ‘the manosphere.’”
What drives the new interest in Catholicism, he suspects, is substance. “They are searchers. They are serious young people in many ways,” he says. “They are trying to take the business of this life seriously, so the church is a natural place for them to explore that.”
Father Shortall insists that “while I’m very cautious about statistics,” there are tangible developments that encourage real hope. In the Archdiocese of Dublin, where he is a priest, 70 adults were baptized during Easter Masses in 2025—a record number. This year, the figure has grown to 129. To sustain and develop this new responsiveness among young people—however humble in absolute terms—requires a church committed to mission.
Patricia Carroll directs the Office of Mission and Ministry in the Dublin archdiocese. She and her team are dedicated to supporting catechesis, evangelization and liturgical development across the capital city. She feels that “there are real indications that the Spirit is moving young adults in Dublin” to explore faith, and she believes it is critically important that they find a church ready to accompany them.
The record numbers of people participating in the Order of Christian Initiation of Adults and becoming members of the church are “just a confirmation that the strategies we built for mission are beginning to work.” Although she quickly cautions that her perspective remains “tentative.” She explains that it would be a category mistake to ever speak of mission in terms of its “success.”
She agrees with Father Shortall that it is “not the case” that the growth is tightly tied to a conservative cultural turn. That is part of the reason her office seeks to resource parishes to meet people where they are at with a “personalized pathway,” instead of presenting Catholic curious people with a fixed position or a set curriculum.
For some parties, a kind of “catch-up catechesis” is their pressing need. For others, it is “community, worship and prayer.” The key thing is that “the period of inquiry is honored,” Ms. Carroll says, so that these young seekers are “enabled to discern the relationship between faith and life.”
The biggest challenge her office faces is the capacity to respond—it cannot currently keep up with the flood of opportunities. An important focus in the coming years, she says, will be helping local parishes to better “receive the gift that is the young adult.” She suggests that as these young adults grow into church leaders in their own right, the mission and priorities of the local church will shift. That process will need to be approached with wisdom and discernment.
For Father Shortall, Maynooth College exists to help inform the wisdom and discernment that is required as the church navigates the complexities of the present moment. “We’re going to be around for the next 100 years, and that is good news,” he says. “We’re on a sustainable path for the church’s mission around formation and education.”
With numbers growing in both candidates for priestly ordination and lay students who are studying theology, Father Shortall is excited by the opportunity to join the local church in reimaging “what is needed—lay ministry, diaconal ministry, chaplaincies, catechesis and, of course, priestly ministry. There are so many different ways to serve the one church.”
While St. Patrick alluded to “many thousands” who responded to his ministry, the reality is that the transformation of Ireland into a Catholic society took many centuries. Neither Ms. Carroll nor Father Shortall imagines that their work is on the cusp of some grand revival. But they are committed to the careful, attentive work of cultivating the soil entrusted to them.
“‘Community’ is an important word for everyone,” Father Shortall says, “but when Christians talk about it, it’s a vision for more than just companionship. It’s social, political, material and spiritual. Fundamentally, it has shaped an attitude of openness to those who are not in the community.”
This, he thinks, may be the key to a renewed church. “It’s certainly what I hope Maynooth College will develop—this distinctively Christian virtue of hospitality.”
St. Patrick did not first encounter the people of Ireland as hospitable. That teenage, trafficked slave escaped. But in time, he returned with a message of transformational liberation. There is something fitting in the Irish church stepping forward today, millennia later, with a similarly confident humility, offering hospitality and committing to accompany anyone who might be tempted to follow in Patrick’s path.
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