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Although the recently published National Intelligence Estimate has changed the nature of the international discussion about Irans nuclear ambition, it has not answered the question of Irans ultimate intention to acquire nuclear weapons. Whereas the intelligence estimate suggests with high probability that Iran froze its nuclear weapons program in 2003, neither the United States nor Israel, distrustful of Irans intentions, believe that the findings warrant a new reconciliatory approach toward Iran. Yet the new report offers the Bush administration an opportunity and imposes a new obligation to engage Iran through direct and unconditional negotiations in an effort to defuse the nuclear issue and substantially improve the prospects for regional stability.

How We Got Here

Irans insistence on its right to enrich uranium, which is a prerequisite to developing nuclear weapons, remains at the core of the dispute. Regardless of how consistent that may be with the provisions of the This article appears in January 7 2008.