UK Election Update 2

The first and only exit poll has been reported by the BBC:

Seats in the House of Commons:

Advertisement

Conservative: 307

Labour: 255

Liberal Democrat: 59

 If this result holds it means that there will be a hung parliament as the Conservatives are 19 seats short of a majority. Keep in mind, however, that exit polls everywhere are notoriously unpredictable. Though the U.K. exit polls got it right in 2005, 2010 is a closer election and several factors make an accurate prediction all the more difficult: First the wonks-that-be are working off of national data, which may not be accurate in a parliamentary election in which people vote district by district. Second, only about one in six voters respond to exit pollsters. Third, while the exit poll may get the share of the national vote correct, it may miscalculate the number of Commons seats, due to the peculiarities of the British system.

 

Comments are automatically closed two weeks after an article's initial publication. See our comments policy for more.

Advertisement

The latest from america

 10.17.2018 Pope Francis greets Cardinal Blase J. Cupich of Chicago before a session of the Synod of Bishops on young people, the faith and vocational discernment at the Vatican Oct. 16. (CNS photo/Vatican Media)
“We take people where they are, walking with them, moving forward,” Cardinal Blase Cupich said.
Michael J. O’LoughlinOctober 20, 2018
Catherine Pakaluk, who currently teaches at the Catholic University of America and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, describes her tweet to Mr. Macron as “spirited” and “playful.”
Emma Winters October 19, 2018
A new proposal from the Department of Homeland Security could make it much more difficult for legal immigrants to get green cards in the United States. But even before its implementation, the proposal has led immigrants to avoid receiving public benefits.
J.D. Long-GarcíaOctober 19, 2018
 Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, then nuncio to the United States, and then-Cardinal Theodore E. McCarrick of Washington, are seen in a combination photo during the beatification Mass of Blessed Miriam Teresa Demjanovich at the Cathedral Basilica of the Sacred Heart in Newark, N.J., Oct. 4, 2014. (CNS photo/Gregory A. Shemitz)
In this third letter Archbishop Viganò no longer insists, as he did so forcefully in his first letter, that the restrictions that he claimed Benedict XVI had imposed on Archbishop McCarrick—one he alleges that Pope Francis later lifted—can be understood as “sanctions.”
Gerard O’ConnellOctober 19, 2018